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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.